Impacts of Lifting Title 42
Barr, Luke. “US Bracing for Influx of Migrants at Southern Border If Title 42 Revoked: DHS.” ABC News, ABC News Network, 29 Mar. 2022, https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-bracing-influx-migrants-southern-border-title-42/story?id=83751437.
With the outbreak of COVID in 2020, the Trump administration implemented Title 42, a policy that allows the United States border control to prohibit people from entering the country to prevent the spreading of COVID, which was deemed a public health emergency. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is currently evaluating Title 42 to determine its renewal. If the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decides that there is no longer a need for Title 42, then the policy will be lifted, and the Department of Homeland Security predicts there to be a mass influx of migrants along the southern US border.
Most migrants entering once Title 42 is lifted will settle in cities near the southern US border to lessen their migration costs. Therefore, increased immigration will impact southwestern US cities the most. To prepare for an increased labor supply, firms in this region can adjust their production techniques to accommodate low-skilled labor. In the long-run, firms that rely on low-skilled workers can move to the southwest region of the US. Firms’ adapting to the shifting labor market caused by immigration will dampen the wage effects on US workers in these cities. US workers in southwestern cities can adjust to increased immigration by moving into more communication-based jobs, making them less substitutable with the incoming foreign-born workers. US workers may also move out of this area to other cities with lower immigration rates, which will also dampen the wage effect in these cities.
As seen in the Mariel boatlift and other natural experiment examples, increased immigration has little to no effect on US natives in these cities. Additionally, awareness of the possibility of Title 42 being lifted allows US natives and firms to adapt to an increased labor supply, allowing southwestern US cities to adjust to absorb the incoming immigrant shock.
8 thoughts on “Impacts of Lifting Title 42”
Great article Rebecca! This gives a lot of insight into the impacts that lifting Title 42 could potentially have on southwestern cities in the United States. Thinking about migration costs, it makes sense that most of the immigrant flow would reside in cities close to the U.S. Mexican border to keep transportation costs down. It’s interesting to see how reasonable shifts in the labor market can greatly help to dampen the negative effects of such a large influx of immigrants during such a short time. Similar to the Mariel Boatlift, it’s predicted that this event will not have a major impact on the U.S. labor market in the long run. It will be interesting to see what the actual impacts will be if Title 42 is lifted, this topic is certainly relevant news today!
Your analysis looks sound on how the influx of low-skilled immigrants will benefit production for firms in the southwest. I am curious about which specific industries will stand to gain the most from the increased supply of low-skilled labor in the southwestern United States? Do you anticipate that the agriculture industry will stand to increase production and, potentially, help lower food prices (accounting for inflation) in the United States?
I found this article and your analysis of the impacts of lifting title 42 to be very interesting! You are definitely correct to distinguish between the short and long-run effects of this issue, and that in the long-run, firms will be able to adjust their production processes and capital stock to the influx of low-skilled labor. I wonder what the other effects of this issue will be outside of the labor market. In thinking about the United States’ declining population, partially driven by decreasing migration rates, I wonder if this expected influx of immigrants will have more lasting effects. If this wave of immigrants stays for a long time and has children in the U.S., or if this influx of immigration lasts for an extended period of time, it has the potential to help the U.S. decline in population growth.
This is a really interesting article, Rebecca. I didn’t realize how big of an effect renewing or not renewing Title 42 would have on the inflow of immigrants to the US. It will be fascinating to see whether these cities near the southwestern border will prepare for the influx of immigrants knowing that it is coming and how that will alter their impacts on natives and the local economy.
I really appreciate the class connections in this blog post, Rebecca. With the onset of the pandemic and the Trump administration, there was a shortage of migration which caused pains in the labor market. Since, the CDC confirms lifting Title 42 on May 23, your analysis of an influx of migrants will likely happen soon. It will be interesting to see both the short and long-run effects of lifting this policy. I am curious to find out if there will be a change in the distribution of manufacturing in the southwest due to the labor influx in the long run. Furthermore, I am would about possible accommodation and programs to support the mass amount of migrants entering with the change in policy. Great post!
Great analysis of the effects of lifting Title 42, Rebecca! It seems that an influx of immigrants will be inevitable whenever the policy is lifted, as it cannot be enacted forever. I know there have been labor market shortages in lower-skilled areas such as the food service industry, so I am curious if there is a way to distribute these migrants across the US to fill in these labor gaps and lessen the burden on border cities. While a massive inflow of immigrants may be costly in the short run, they are of the utmost importance to growing the population, providing the government with more tax revenue, and stimulating the overall economy. I am wondering what the current rationale for upholding Title 42 is since immigrants are positively selected on health. It seems that with Covid spreading throughout the US already, keeping healthy immigrants out is virtually pointless.
This is a really interesting article. I see that the Biden administration has since lifted the Title 42 policy. This makes sense since immigrants are largely no longer a threat to public health in the United States. The government will now need to detain and harbor migrants near the border before it can deport them or release them to seek asylum. There will be a lot of data that comes as a result of lifting Trump’s Title 42 policy. One piece of data that I am interested to see is if these immigrants are migrating inside of the United States or if they are content staying in the Southwest.
This was an incredibly well thought-out article that is multi-faceted and layered. Your prediction that this in-flux of immigrants will push US-born workers to move into communication-based positions is really poignant. I am really curious to see if whether workers will choose to move up in terms of skill level or just move out to different areas.