Post by Logan Sundberg. Colgate Class of 2022. As Trump Barricades the Border, Legal Immigration Is Starting to Plunge”, by Solan Kanno-Youngs, The New York Times, February 24, 2020.

The article discusses the impacts that President Trump’s recent policy changes have had on legal immigration. In general, Trump is starting to see the results of his previous policy changes regarding immigration. The article cites that legal immigration has fallen more than 11%, with a projected 30% plunge in 2021. The number of lawful permanent residences obtained has declined to 940,877 in 2018 from 1,063,289 in 2016, and the number of visas issued to foreigners abroad looking to immigrate has declined 25% in 2019. In addition, there were two new measures that took effect on Friday and Monday of this last week. The first was an expansion of the travel ban and the second was stricter wealth tests on green card applicants. Both of these new measures will continue to tighten the US borders.

The first measure, an expansion of the travel ban, has expanded to six new countries. This ban will now cover 13 countries, blocking 5% of people granted permanent residency through the diversity lottery.

The second measure, stricter wealth tests on green card applicants, will now test dozens of factors beyond a household income threshold to determine who receives green-cards. This new measure could block two-thirds of immigrants who have permanent legal status between 2012 and 2016 from applying for green cards, because they are considered a “public charge”. Additionally, it blocks current immigrants from participating in social welfare programs, in fear of retaliation for being a “public charge,” even if they are not going to apply for green cards.

The article mentioned additional measures that have been put into place. One includes in person interviews for immigration visas. Another is a proposed 60% increase in citizenship fees for applicants.

The White House claims that these measures will protect American taxpayers and welfare programs for Americans who truly need it, reduce the federal deficit, and establish the principle that immigrants should be self-reliant financially.

In reality, while these measures might help native-born Americans in the short run, in the long run it will impact the economy negatively. The article cites a statement from chief of staff Mick Mulvaney saying “we are running out of people to fuel economic growth.” With stricter immigration policies, less immigrants will be pulled to the US, especially with increased migration costs. In particular, these policies will impact low skilled workers the most. While that might result in more positive selection, according to the Roy Model, with less low-skilled workers there will be a gap in the workforce. Thus, in the long run, there will be less productivity and less economic growth, impacting the standards of living for those in the States.